PREDATORS AS SENTINELS: UNRAVELING TROPHIC SHIFTS IN A DARKENING FJORD USING dDNA AND STABLE ISOTOPES OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS

Summary

The Greater Oslofjord, like many other coastal systems, is undergoing rapid ecological shifts driven by climate change, coastal freshening and darkening. To understand how these bottom-up stressors restructure food webs, we utilized a multi-trophic approach analyzing three sympatric predators (approx. 500 individuals): Harbour seals (Phoca vitulina), Great Cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo), and Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua). We combined dietary DNA (dDNA) metabarcoding with stable isotope analysis (δ13C, δ15N) to trace temporal and spatial dietary changes over 20 years. Traditional morphological methods often fail to capture soft-bodied prey and secondary consumption; thus, we used dDNA combined with novel reference databases to maximize taxonomic resolution. Our dDNA results revealed high-resolution predation data, including the detection of secondary consumption (zoo- and phytoplankton) alongside primary prey, effectively mapping the food web from top predators down to primary producers. Isotope data complemented this by delineating trophic niche widths and source of primary production (land vs. sea). We observed distinct dietary variations linking predator foraging behavior to environmental gradients. This included observable changes over the last 20 years, such as an increase in invasive species in their diet and a shift in zoo- and phytoplankton composition. These findings demonstrate that combining molecular and isotopic analysis of top predators provides a powerful tool for monitoring the cascading effects of anthropogenic changes on marine food webs.